Bayes theorem

Rarely Tested

Bayes theorem:

Let $$E_{1}, E_{2}, E_{3}...$$ be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events each with a probability $$p_{1}, p_{2}, p_{3}...$$ of occurring. Let B be another event of non-zero probability such that probability of B given $$E_{1}$$ is $$q_{1}$$, B given $$E_{2}$$ is $$q_{2}$$ etc. By Bayes theorem: $$$P(E_{i}/B) = \frac{p_{i}q_{i}}{\sum_{j=1}^{n}p_{j}q_{j}}$$$

Question 1

A machine produces 1000 dolls every 10 hours out of which 5 are defective. On one day, the machine operator inputs incorrect settings for the machine due to which all the dolls produced in that one hour are defective. If a doll chosen at random at the end of the day is defective, what is the chance it was produced in that one hour?

Question 2

Amit has two coins: one biased where the probability of getting heads is 70% and an unbiased coin. He picks one of these coins at random and tosses the coin. If he gets tails, what is the probability that he chose the biased coin?

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