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Improve the bracketed part of the sentence.
Yet, it would be a mistake to presume that ties can so easily return to their pre-2015 strength, as the ground (had) shifted in too many ways since then.
The original phrase "had shifted" uses the past perfect tense, which typically indicates an action completed before another past action.
However, in this context, the sentence discusses an ongoing state of affairs and the lasting impact of changes since 2015. Therefore, "has shifted" — the present perfect tense — is more appropriate
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