XAT 2010 Question 16

Instructions

Analyse the following passage and provide an appropriate answer for the questions that follow.

When we speak of the “probability of death”, the exact meaning of the experience can be defined in the following way only. We must not think of an individual, but of this expression can be defined in the following way only. We must not think of an individual, but of a certain class as a whole, e.g., “all insured men forty-one years old living in a given country and not engaged in certain dangerous occupations.” A probability of death is attached to the class of men or to another class that can be defined in a similar way. We can say nothing about the probability of death of an individual even if we know this condition of life and health in detail. The phrase “probability of death”, which it refers to a single person, has no meaning at all.

Question 16

Which of the following conclusions can be drawn from the passage?
1. Singular, non replicable events can be assigned numerical probability value.
2. Probability calculation requires data of the class of people or of events.
3. The data about a class of events can be used to predict the future of any specific event.



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