This is a data-collection activity. A sample of the observations you will make is shown below (dates for a central Indian location; dates for Eid-ul-Fitr can shift by a day depending on Moon sighting).
| Gregorian year | Eid-ul-Fitr (Gregorian date) | Diwali (Gregorian date) |
|---|
| 2021 | 13 May 2021 | 4 November 2021 |
| 2022 | 3 May 2022 | 24 October 2022 |
| 2023 | 22 April 2023 | 12 November 2023 |
| 2024 | 11 April 2024 | 1 November 2024 |
| 2025 | 31 March 2025 | 20 October 2025 |
Eid-ul-Fitr. Look at the successive Gregorian dates: 13 May, 3 May, 22 April, 11 April, 31 March. The date moves earlier by about $$10$$β$$11$$ days every year (13Β May β 3Β May: $$-10$$ d; 3Β May β 22Β April: $$-11$$ d; 22Β April β 11Β April: $$-11$$ d; 11Β April β 31Β March: $$-11$$ d). This confirms the expected drift: the Islamic calendar is a purely lunar calendar of $$12$$ lunar months ($$354$$ days), which is about $$11$$ days shorter than the $$365$$-day Gregorian year. On the Islamic (Hijri) calendar itself, Eid-ul-Fitr is always on the same day: 1 Shawwal. So the lunar date stays the same while the Gregorian date keeps sliding earlier.
Diwali. Look at the Diwali dates: 4 Nov, 24 Oct, 12 Nov, 1 Nov, 20 Oct. Going from one year to the next: $$-11$$ d, $$+19$$ d, $$-11$$ d, $$-12$$ d. So Diwali does not move steadily earlier every year. Most years the date moves back by about $$11$$ days (like Eid-ul-Fitr), but every $$2$$β$$3$$ years there is a sudden forward jump of about $$30$$ days. This happens because the Indian luni-solar calendar keeps its months in step with the seasons by adding an extra intercalary month (Adhika Maasa) every two to three years β an extra month pushes Diwali about $$30$$ days later on the Gregorian calendar.
In the sample table above, the big forward jump is between 2022 (24 October) and 2023 (12 November). So we expect an Adhika Maasa to have been inserted between Diwali 2022 and Diwali 2023. On checking a luni-solar (Hindu panchang) calendar, we indeed find Adhika Shravana in the year 2023 β an extra intercalary Shravana month β which confirms the guess.
Note: If you collect data for five different years, your table will look slightly different, but the pattern β steady $$11$$-day drift for Eid-ul-Fitr, mostly $$11$$-day drift for Diwali with occasional $$\approx 30$$-day forward jumps in the year of an intercalary month β will always be the same.